The Sunter/Ilbury team developed broad guidelines about the scenario conversation. Here are some:
- Circle: It's best done in a circle to promote egalatarianism and a free-flow of ideas
- Participative: Scenario planning has to be intensively participative or it fails
- Don't prepare: Do not bring paper or data. Prepared papers on strategy strait-jackets people
- Facilitate well: How the conversation is managed is important. Value creativity
- Language has meaning: Choose the names of the scenarios carefully as they become part of an organisation's vocabulary
- Fun: While serious make the discusssion fun as people are more creative if they are relaxed
- Open and inclusive & businesslike and intense: It is possible for strategic conversations to be both - as long as they are carefully structured
The conversation model
Sunter and Ilbury "wanted to convert scenario planning from a fairly esoteric, intellectual discipline into a methodology that was practical, down to earth and considered relevant by the average line manager." They succeeded.
The metaphor of playing a game unleashes the imagination and generates a huge volume of ideas.
The scenario game
The scenario game has two phases:
- Defining the game - steps 1-6
- Playing the game - steps 7-10
Each step starts with a question:
- Context: How has the game in your industry changed, where is it heading and how have you fared as a player?
- Scope: What is you playing field today, and how do you want to expand (or contract) it in the light of the developing context and the resources at your disposal?
- Players: Who are the players that can most advance or retard your strategy, and how should you handle them in the future?
- Rules: What are the rules of the game that are likely to govern your strategy under all scenarios?
- Uncertainties: What are the key uncertainties that could have a significant impact on the game and divert your course either positively or negatively?
- Scenarios: On your gameboard, what are the possible scenarios and where would you position yourself in relation to them now?
- SWOT: What are your strengths and weaknesses as a player; and what are the opportunities and threats offered by the game?
- Options: Within your span of control, what options do you have to improve your current performance and longer-term prospects in the game?
- Decisions: Which options do you want to turn into decisions right now, and what is the initial action associated with each decision?
- Outcomes: What is your meaning of winning the game in five year's time, expressed as a set of measurable outcomes?
The players of the game contribute all the material to the excercise right then and there. This promotes buy-in as the participants develop and write the scenarios. "The consequence is an empowering process that builds a capability for strategic thinking within the whole team."
Issues for Potential Action (IPAs)
Issues for Potential Action (IPAs) are immediately noted down at any stage of the game. IPAs are considered during the second half of the game. Some of the best ideas often come out of the blue. Randomness of thought is encouraged. Nothing gets lost as IPAs are written down on a separate flip chart and reintroduced into the game at the appropriate moment.
The Sunter/Ilbury approach makes it possible to go through the entire process of scenario planning within six to 10 hours (or one to two workshops). Also set aside time for a strong 3-hour follow-up session.
Mission of an organisation
The purpose or mission of an organisation can only be defined at the end of the game. The outcomes of the game form the inputs to the Strategic Plan.
The next step is developing a brief ...strategic plan.
Last modified: 26-08-2009