Scenarios defined
This definition also appears on the introductory page...scenario conversation and is worth repeating:
Scenarios are not plans. They're hypothetical futures. Participants work with uncertainties by asking "what if" questions.
Scenarios, with a detailed and realistic narrative, can direct one's attention to aspect otherwise overlooked. Scenario planning stimulates decision makers to consider different possible future states. It can be a powerful tool for breaking through traditional thinking and in changing mindsets. It captures a richness and range of possibilities, opening the eyes of all involved to opportunities and threats they may otherwise have ignored.
Shell on its website states: "Scenarios are not mechanical forecasts. They recognise that people hold beliefs and make choices that can lead down different paths. They reveal different possible futures that are plausible and challenging."
Clem Sunter observed in 1998 "that a scenario is a story of what can happen. It is not a forecast of what is going to happen".
Scenario planning is "to think the unthinkable before it happens to you - either in a positive or negative way" e.g. the Titanic, the collapse of Barings (one the oldest merchant bank in the UK) and the 1986 scenarios concerning South Africa.
Guidelines for conducting a scenario conversation
The Sunter/Ilbury team developed broad guidelines about the scenario conversation. Here are some:
- Circle: It's best done in a circle to promote egalitarianism and a free-flow of ideas
- Participative: Scenario planning has to be intensively participative or it fails
- Don't prepare: Do not bring data. Prepared papers on strategy strait-jackets people
- Facilitate well: How the conversation is managed is important. Value creativity
- Language has meaning: Choose the names of the scenarios carefully as they become part of an organisation's vocabulary
- Fun: While serious make the discussion fun as people are more creative if they are relaxed
- Open and inclusive & businesslike and intense: It is possible for strategic conversations to be both - as long as they are carefully structured
The conversation model
Sunter and Ilbury "wanted to convert scenario planning from a fairly esoteric, intellectual discipline into a methodology that was practical, down to earth and considered relevant by the average line manager." They succeeded.
The metaphor of playing a game unleashes the imagination and generates a huge volume of ideas.
The scenario game
The scenario game has two phases:
- Defining the game - steps 1-6
- Playing the game - steps 7-10
Each step starts with a question:
- Context: How has the game in your industry changed, where is it heading and how have you fared as a player?
- Scope: What is you playing field today, and how do you want to expand (or contract) it in the light of the developing context and the resources at your disposal?
- Players: Who are the players that can most advance or retard your strategy, and how should you handle them in the future?
- Rules: What are the rules of the game that are likely to govern your strategy under all scenarios?
- Uncertainties: What are the key uncertainties that could have a significant impact on the game and divert your course either positively or negatively?
- Scenarios: On your gameboard, what are the possible scenarios and where would you position yourself in relation to them now?
- SWOT: What are your strengths and weaknesses as a player; and what are the opportunities and threats offered by the game?
- Options: Within your span of control, what options do you have to improve your current performance and longer-term prospects in the game?
- Decisions: Which options do you want to turn into decisions right now, and what is the initial action associated with each decision?
- The Meaning of Winning: What is your personal meaning of winning the game in five year's time, expressed as a set of measurable outcomes? What is the team's definition of winning exress in a Strategic Plan?
The players of the game contribute all the material to the excercise right then and there. This promotes buy-in as the participants develop and write the scenarios. "The consequence is an empowering process that builds a capability for strategic thinking within the whole team."
Development of a Strategic Plan
The conversation is concluded with the development of a Strategic Plan consisting of:
- A Mission Statement
- A Vision Statement with three Wildly Important Goals (WIGs)
- A Core Values Statement
For details about a Strategic Plan, please click ...strategic plan
Issues for Potential Action (IPAs)
Issues for Potential Action (IPAs) are immediately noted down at any stage of the game. IPAs are considered during the second half of the game. Some of the best ideas often come out of the blue. Randomness of thought is encouraged. Nothing gets lost as IPAs are written down on a separate flip chart and reintroduced into the game at the appropriate moment.
The Sunter/Ilbury approach makes it possible to go through the entire process of a scenario conversation within six to 10 hours (or one to two-day workshops).
ABPLAN has experienced that with a group of 8 to 10 participants, the conversation takes 7 to 8 hours.
ABPLAN furnishes a Scenario Conversation report and a list of the IPAs within 48 hours.
Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas and BSC Strategy Map
ABPLAN advises that a Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas be developed as a next step. This normally takes a few hours and provides much needed strategic focus on the seven to 10 industry elements that need to be identified along with a focus on whre to place resources and on what differentiates your company. For details about Blue Ocean Strategy please click on...blue ocean.
After a full Balanced Scorecard (BSC) has been developed and has been installed ABPLAN usually takes the team though the development of a BSC Strategy Map.
Follow-up with a Balanced Scorecard Workshop
A Balanced Scorecard (BSC)/Operational Plan Workshop is usually scheduled soon afterwards. The time up to this workshop allows for further internal disucssion about the ideas covered by the Issues for Potential Action (IPAs).
During the BSC Workshop the IPA's are grouped under the three Wildly Important Goals (WIGs) of the Vision Statement and few specific objectives are developed - also with due reference to the Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas. The team decides on a limited range of 9 priorities.
After a few months, the team would again consult the IPA list and develop additional objectives. Be careful not to overwhelm yourselves with an overload of objectives.
Details about a Balanced Scorecard can be found here...balanced scorecard.
If you perhaps have'nt followed the above link to Strategic Plan, now is the time to do so... strategic plan - and thereafter go to Strategy Maps.
Last modified: 03-01-2012
Client Quotes
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